College Football Week 4 Preview

My picks and analysis on the week's top games

As we get close to the end of September, the non-conference portion of the season is mostly behind us, and that means a steady diet of traditional intra-conference matchups from here on. Week 4 delivers some pretty good ones – including three that feature head-to-head ranked teams. Some interesting matchups I don’t mention below include #7 USC traveling to 3-0 Oregon State, a place USC has struggled in the past. Then there is a big meeting between two basketball blue bloods, Duke and Kansas, who both sport 3-0 football squads and will play before a KU stadium that is sold-out for just the second time in 13 years. Another surprising sell-out is at Rutgers, where the Scarlet Knights will host Iowa in what figures to be a “first team to kick a FG wins” kind of game.

#5 Clemson @ #21 Wake Forest (Noon ET, ABC)

Line: Clemson -7 | Money Line: Clemson -278, Wake Forest +222 | O/U: 55.5

Clemson has beaten Wake Forest 13 straight times. The only one of those we should really take anything from is last year’s game. The Tigers were the only team to hold the Demon Deacons below 35 points in the regular season. They did it in large part by controlling the pace of the game with a devastating running attack (333 yards, 6.2 per carry). It also minimized the pressure on QB DJ Uiagalelei, who had his struggles in 2021.

Uiagalelei appears more comfortable so far this season, but Clemson would probably like to win via the same approach as last season. Against their two FBS opponents, Vanderbilt and Liberty, the Deacons have allowed an average of 142.5 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. That’s not bad, but neither of those teams has Clemson-caliber players. The Tigers should be able to run it again.

Clemson’s defense also deserves its share of credit for slowing Wake’s offense last year. They forced two fumbles and a Sam Hartman interception, while holding one of the country’s most lethal RPO attacks to 60 yards below its season average. Clemson has the athletes to disrupt what the Deacons do. So as long as they remain disciplined and don’t miss too many assignments, they should be capable of similar results this time.

This one feels like an easy pick. It’s in Winston-Salem, but the Deacons have never had a huge home field edge.

My pick: Clemson -7, Clemson -278

#20 Florida @ #11 Tennessee (3:30pm ET, CBS)

Line: Tennessee -10.5 | Money Line: Tennessee -355, Florida +278 | O/U: 62

This once-epic SEC matchup hasn’t been worthy of much attention in quite a while. In each of the five meetings from 1995-1999 both teams were ranked in the Top 10, and in three of them both were ranked in the Top 5. Neither team is back to the glory days of peak Spurrier-Fulmer, but this is the first time both have been ranked since 2017. It’s also the first time in a very long time that Tennessee has entered as a double-digit favorite (50 years). The series hasn’t been kind to the Vols lately, with the Gators winning 16 of the past 17 meetings.

Both teams have already posted wins over a ranked opponent, so we should have a reasonably good idea of who they are. The Volunteers run a breakneck style of offense that results in a lot of snaps. That’s not good news for Florida, who are somewhat thin on their defensive depth chart. They must limit first downs and get off the field early on Tennessee possessions, or else fatigue could be a big issue for them as the game wears on. Easier said than done, as the Vols two-pronged run-pass attack can move the ball on you in several different ways. Most of those begin with QB Hendon Hooker, who can beat you both passing and running, though he has yet to do much of the latter thus far this season. He’s also good at protecting the ball – just three interceptions in 387 pass attempts since last season.

Whether the Gators have a shot of keeping this close depends on which version of QB Anthony Richardson shows up. Will it be the one from the season opener against Utah (70% completions, no turnovers, 134 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs) or will it be the one from the last two games (<50% completions, zero TDs, 4 INTs)? The Vols will try to make it the latter by sealing the edges and forcing him to beat them strictly by passing, not a great proposition for the Gators.

This is a big game for both teams. There is no better way for Tennessee to demonstrate they are a team on the rise than to get a rare win over their longtime nemesis, especially as a big favorite playing at home. For the Gators they already have one division loss against Kentucky, and a win could set them up with a good shot at being 5-1 when they enter a brutal three game stretch in late October (LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M). Lose this one, and they would be in an early hole in the division.

My pick: Tennessee -10.5, Tennessee -355

#15 Oregon @ Washington State (4:00pm ET, Fox)

Line: Oregon -6.5 | Money Line: Oregon -250, Washington St -205 | O/U: 57.5

While technically not an upset, Oregon knocked off a higher ranked opponent Saturday (BYU). I foresaw that one primarily because BYU was coming off a very physical and emotional win the week before against Baylor, and looked like a team that was primed for a letdown on the road. Now it will be the Ducks who must avoid that same fate when they head to Pullman to face a feisty and surprising Cougars team who have had success against Oregon in recent years.

Oregon knew they probably had an edge against BYU’s defensive front, which was down two players and maybe still worn down from the Baylor game. The Ducks ran the ball early and often, and ended up with 234 yards on the ground. QB Bo Nix didn’t have a huge day stat-wise, but he was a very efficient 13-for-18, 222 yards (17 per completion) and 2 TDs, plus 3 rushing, accounting for all five of Oregon’s touchdowns on the day. His offensive line was again outstanding. They have not allowed a sack all season, but face maybe their toughest pass rushing team yet in WSU, who had 7 sacks last week against Colorado State. They are also good at forcing takeaways, 7 on the season so far. In their toughest matchup at Wisconsin, they gave up a lot of yards but were locked-in when the Badgers got the ball to the Cougars’ side of the field.

Offensively, the Cougars have turned it over a lot – eight in their three games. That won’t win you any games against the likes of Oregon. They’ve only averaged 354 yards per game, just 97th in the country. Wisconsin’s defense is very good, but when your other two games are against Colorado State and Idaho, and you run an Air Raid-based offense, you should be better. The Ducks have some inexperience in their secondary that has been exploited by opponents at times, so this could be an opportunity for QB Cam Ward and Co. to get the passing game rolling.

I think this game will come down to how focused Oregon is and whether or not they were drained by their big win against the #12 team in the country. While they may have already proved they’re nowhere near as bad as they looked in the 49-3 loss to Georgia, backing it up with a road win against an underrated team would be big.

My pick: Washington State +6.5, Oregon -250

#10 Arkansas vs #23 Texas A&M (Arlington, TX) (7:00pm ET, ESPN)

Line: Texas A&M -2 | Money Line: Texas A&M -130, Arkansas +110 | O/U: 48.5

This matchup features the irresistible force against the immovable object when Arkansas has the ball. The Razorbacks are averaging over 500 yards of offense per game, 19th in the country. The Aggies allow just 4.23 yards per play, 15th in the country. One thing in Arkansas’ favor is that A&M is better defending the pass than the run, and the Hogs prefer to run (10th in the country at 244 yards per game). In their loss to Appalachian State, the A&M defense wasn’t bad at all. They only gave up 8 yards more than their season average, and the Mountaineers only scored 17 points. This is a pretty even matchup.

If Arkansas possessions are the irresistible force versus the immovable object, then Texas A&M’s possessions will be the polar opposite. The Aggies offensive woes are well documented. Their quarterbacking has been anywhere from subpar to terrible, and schematically they don’t seem to be able to get their best skill players into favorable 1-on-1 matchups. Arkansas will present a great opportunity to rectify that. The Hogs are actually pretty good at stopping the run (just 68 yards per game), but their pass defense is currently the worst in the nation at an abysmal 353 yards per game surrendered. It certainly doesn’t help that All-American safety Jalen Catalan is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Add in a lot of inexperience in the secondary, and linebackers that don’t quite have SEC-level athleticism, and you have holes waiting to be exploited. Again, can the Aggies do it? They have the skill players, most notably RB Devon Achane and WR Anais Smith – but can Jimbo Fisher scheme the right matchups and can QB Max Johnson get them the ball?

This one feels like it will come down to a turnover or special teams play. A&M has the better special teams unit, again utilizing the talents of Achane (kickoff returns) and Smith (punt returns). I think that’s where you’ll find your difference.

My pick: Texas A&M -2, Texas A&M -130