It’s hard to believe we are already through one-third of the college football regular season. Where did September go? As we flip the calendar to October, we come upon what I assume is quite a rarity; a weekend that features five head-to-head matchups of Top 25 teams. I have to believe this has happened in the past at some point, but I cannot recall when. If that’s not enough, there are numerous other intriguing matchups like #4 Michigan at Iowa (Top 5 teams are 0-5 at Kinnick Stadium in recent years), #15 Washington at UCLA (two unbeaten teams on a Friday night), and surprising Kansas trying to remain unbeaten against a good Iowa State team. Just cancel all plans for Saturday and prepare for 12 hours of binging.
#7 Kentucky @ #14 Ole Miss (Noon ET, ESPN)
Line: Ole Miss -7 | Money Line: Ole Miss -267, Kentucky +215 | O/U: 53.5
The headline in this game, for me at least, is the return of Kentucky RB Chris Rodriguez from a suspension. The Wildcats have had to rely heavily on QB Will Levis and their defense during Rodriguez’s absence. They’ve been up to the task, despite only managing 81.5 rushing yards per game. Now, the schedule gets much tougher, the point where the added dimension to their offense could be the difference-maker.
Ole Miss’s defense looked good in their first three games against weak competition, but showed some cracks in their secondary last week against Tulsa that I think Kentucky can exploit. In addition to running the ball, the Wildcats must do a better job of protecting Levis than they have so far (allowing 4 sacks per game) against a Rebel defense that has shown an ability to get to the QB.
The Rebels’ offense has run the ball very well so far this season behind Zach Evans and true freshman Quinshon Judkins. That they were shut out in the 2nd Half against Tulsa raises some concern. They will need to get more out of Jaxson Dart and the passing game to win Saturday.
My Pick: Kentucky +7, Kentucky +215
#2 Alabama @ #20 Arkansas (3:30pm ET, CBS)
Line: Alabama -17 | Money Line: Alabama -800, Arkansas +550 | O/U: 61
Since 2021, Alabama is just 1-4 against the spread in true road games. In the four ATS losses, they didn’t even come close to covering (12 points short at Florida, at least 2 TDs short in the others). Why? I have a couple theories. First, I think even in the eyes of Vegas the Tide are victims of their own success, and it’s simply assumed they will dominate lesser opponents no matter where they play. The fact is, no matter how great you are it’s tough to go on the road and perform at your best in loud, hostile environments. Alabama is going to get the opponent’s best shot, no exceptions.
Second, the Tide haven’t had a great offensive line the past couple seasons, and that’s compounded on the road, where you typically have to go with a silent snap count. That takes away an edge, however small it may be, from their linemen in getting a jump on the opposing pass-rushers. If there is one thing we have consistently seen from Alabama on the road, it’s Bryce Young having to scramble and pull Houdini acts to avoid big losses several times per game. Since this is Bryce Young, he’s mostly been able to do that (reminder: the Tide still won straight up in 3 of those 4 games they didn’t cover). But leaky pass-protection absolutely has given them trouble, and that are going up against an Arkansas defense that leads the country in sacks (20 in four games) won’t help.
So this must mean I think Arkansas will at least cover, if not win, right? Not so fast. Alabama will still get theirs. While the Hogs have shown a great ability to get to the QB, their pass defense is atrocious (111th in the country in passing yards per game allowed). Even running for his life, Bryce Young and his receivers should be able to exploit Arkansas’ leaky coverage. That means the Hogs will have to score to keep up. I’m not sure how they’ll do that. They run the ball very well, but Alabama defends the run very well, and I think the Tide will sell out to force QB KJ Jefferson to beat them in the vertical passing game. That’s where I see problems. When the teams played in Tuscaloosa last year, Arkansas kept the score very close, thanks in large part to Jefferson hitting on long passes. Thing is, many of those plays were to WR Treylon Burks (8 receptions, 179 yards, 2 TDs that day), who is now in the NFL. Thus far, it doesn’t look like the Hogs have found a replacement to enable them to attack opponents downfield.
I have a high degree of confidence Alabama will win this game outright. My confidence is low enough against the spread that I’m pretty much in the flip-a-coin crowd. Typically, in that situation, I lean towards the home team.
My Pick: Arkansas +17, Alabama -800
#9 Oklahoma State @ #16 Baylor (3:30pm ET, Fox)
Line: Baylor -2 | Money Line: Baylor -130, Oklahoma State +110 | O/U: 56.5
The Big 12 is about as wide-open as any conference looks to be so far this season. This is a huge matchup between the two title game participants from last season. One one hand, Baylor is the more battle-tested team so far and looks like the real deal. On the other hand, Oklahoma State is more talented (offensively, at least) and is coming off a bye that provided them a week of extra preparation for a crucial.
The Key to the Cowboys’ 2022 success was always going to be their offense. After taking heavy personnel losses to what was a Top 10 defense in ’21, the offense has to pick up the slack. That has fallen largely on QB Spencer Sanders, who is talented, but has been enigmatic in prior seasons. In the two games against Baylor last year, Sanders threw 7 interceptions. So far this season, he has thrown for 1,287 yards, run for 235 and accounted for 17 TDs (14 passing, three rushing). He has only turned the ball over once. That’s the consistency they need from him, especially with Baylor’s defense being so stingy on the ground (79 yards per game rushing allowed).
Baylor’s key to winning is being able to run the ball. That’s what hurt them in their lone loss at BYU (just 152 yards and 2.9 yards per carry). QB Blake Shapen doesn’t seem ready or able to put the offense on his back at this point. I like Oklahoma State. I think they are a little more talented and the bye will help, even on the road.
My Pick: Oklahoma State +2, Oklahoma State +110
#22 Wake Forest @ #23 Florida State (3:30pm ET, ABC)
Line: Florida State -7 | Money Line: Florida State -240, Wake Forest +196 | O/U: 64
I am slowly becoming a believer in the Seminoles. I kind of dismissed their Week 1 win over LSU due to the somewhat uneven performance and an assumption that LSU might not have been as good as they actually are. Then they went to Louisville on a short week, lost their starting QB in the 2nd Qtr, and still rallied late for a victory. Against Boston College last Saturday, they simply did what a superior team ought to do – dominate. They aren’t back to national prominence, by any means, but they are as good as any Seminole team we’ve seen since before Jimbo Fisher bolted town.
Wake Forest will certainly present FSU with their toughest test thus far. The Demon Deacons shredded a formidable Clemson defense last week and nearly knocked off the #5 Tigers, but for a terrible defense of their own. The Seminoles look like they might be easier to exploit defensively on the ground than through the air, so Wake may want (or need) to rely more on RB Justice Ellison, or even for Sam Hartman to break off some good runs on the QB options.
This has all the feel of an offensive shootout. I don’t normally get into picking the over-under, but I’m intrigued by this one. 64 points feels a little light with Seminoles QB Jordan Travis back healthy, a bad Wake defense, and a very good Wake offense. I feel good about the over. As for a winner, I think the Seminoles will prevail at home, but 7 feels like too wide a spread for me.
My Pick: Wake Forest +7, Florida State -240, Over 64
#10 NC State @ #5 Clemson (7:30pm ET, ABC)
Line: Clemson -6.5 | Money Line: Clemson -267, NC State +215 | O/U: 43
In a weekend featuring a lot of big games, this might be the biggest. It will certainly be a pivotal game in determining who will win the ACC Atlantic Division, and when we look back it might even have been the difference between getting into the playoff or not. Games with such implications are familiar territory for Clemson. For NC State, it is the very first time in program history they have been part of a matchup of Top 10 teams.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Wolfpack’s passing offense has struggled so far, currently 62nd in the nation after finishing 19th last year. QB Devin Leary seems to be under pressure more often, suggesting perhaps that they are feeling the loss of LT Ikem Ekwanu to the NFL more than many expected they would. The good news for the ‘Pack is Clemson’s pass defense has not been good either. They were torched for 337 yards and 6 TDs by Wake Forest. A big part of that can be chalked up to injuries to Tiger cornerbacks Sheridan Jones and Malcolm Greene, and safety Andrew Mukuba. However, it is unknown at this time if any of them will return on Saturday.
Clemson finally got the performance it needed out of DJ Uiagalelei against the Deacons (26-of-41, 371 yards, 5 TDs). Of course, that game came against a sieve of a defense. The Wolfpack are among the nation’s stingiest (261.5 yards per game allowed, 13th in the country).
I think NC State is capable of winning this game, but with Uiagalelei playing much better this season, and the Tigers at home in what will be a lathered-up Death Valley, I just can’t talk myself into taking the underdog.
My Pick: Clemson -6.5, Clemson -267