College Football Week 5 Recap
I want to talk about a great week of college football games, but alas, first things first.
For much Sunday it felt like we might finally get through our first firing-free week since Labor Day. Instead, it was the calm before the storm, as we got hit with a double-whammy. First, unsurprisingly, Karl Dorrell was mercifully let go at Colorado. Just a couple hours later, word of a bigger surprise went public, as Paul Chryst was relieved of his duties at Wisconsin. I’ll begin with the latter
How uncomfortable must it have been for Wisconsin fans at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday? They already knew things weren’t all right with the Badgers. Truth is, things haven’t been right since their Rose Bowl appearance after the 2019 season. But it had to sting even more to see former head coach Bret Bielema, who unceremoniously left town in 2012 for greener pastures (that weren’t so green after all), only to return ten years later with his Illinois team and essentially out-Wisconsin Wisconsin. The Illini played the kind of ball-control, defense-wins football that had been a Madison staple for decades. They held the Badgers to just 2 (two!) yards rushing for the game. The 34-10 Illinois victory dropped Wisconsin to 2-3 on the season.
Still, Chryst won 72% of his games in his 7-plus year tenure, including taking the Badgers to three New Year’s Six bowl games. He’s an alum and Madison native. He’s owed $16.4 million on what remained of his contract, which was renewed less than a full year ago. But since 2020 he was just 15-10. Over that time the offense has been….terrible. The administration had seen enough of the downward trend.
Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard will take over as the interim head coach. Leonhard’s name has been mentioned as someone who would be on a lot of short lists for other head coaching jobs. Like Chryst, he’s a UW alum. I would not be surprised if he is names the full-time head coach at the end of the season, and maybe even sooner. While he’s a great defensive coach, I think the administration will need to hear a solid plan on how he’ll give the offense a shot in the arm. Wisconsin has steadfastly maintained an identity since Barry Alvarez took over in 1990, and they have (mostly) successfully stuck with it through four different head coaches. They won’t stray, making Leonhard an even more obvious choice.
Colorado was in a bind just after National Signing Day in 2020, when Mel Tucker suddenly bolted after just one season for bigger money at Michigan State. Yet even with the difficult circumstances, the choice to hire Dorrell was met mostly with skepticism. While he was a former assistant in Boulder, that was back in the 1990s, and he had spent all but one of the previous 13 seasons in the NFL. After taking over the program just as the COVID pandemic hit, Dorrell actually navigated a very challenging situation in 2020 pretty well, and went 4-1 in the abbreviated regular season. But his first full season saw a precipitous decline, going 4-8 with the Pac-12’s worst offense in 2021. Significant roster turnover followed, and Colorado was never competitive this season, being outscored 175-57. The administration had little choice but to move on.
While the Colorado program has mostly been down for a quite a while, previous coaches have demonstrated the ability to win. While the Bill McCartney era, which includes Colorado’s lone national championship in 1990, might be too much to expect, the Rick Neuheisel and Gary Barnett eras that followed it shouldn’t be too much to ask. Both had 10-win seasons and major bowl appearances. That said, both also left after drawing unwanted NCAA attention, particularly in Barnett’s case. Still, even Mike MacIntyre had a 10-win season as recently as 2016. Colorado isn’t at the top of the ever-growing list of Power 5 vacancies, but they do have some tradition, a solid fanbase and decent facilities and stadium. The uncertainty surrounding Colorado’s long term conference affiliation and revenues might give some coaching prospects pause, particularly if they are also drawing interest for another Power 5 job. The administration will need to demonstrate a commitment that hasn’t always been there in the recent past, and back it up with some cash. Whether they have the wherewithal to do that remains to be seen.
The name most associated with the job opening will probably be Eric Bienemy, the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs. The Buffs legend has seemingly been getting passed over for years for NFL head jobs. Would he be willing to go to the college level for the opportunity? CU has reached out to him in the past and been rebuffed. Still, it’s a phone call you have to make if you are AD Rick George. The other name that would seem obvious is Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun. Colorado knows him well – Air Force is 13-2 against the Buffaloes in Calhoun’s tenure. Some may question his recruiting ability, given how different that works at the military academies, and the thought that he’d want to bring the triple-option to Boulder might turn people off. Calhoun also reportedly turned down interest from Colorado in 2010, but perhaps at 57 he’d see this as his last, best chance at a Power 5 job.
And now, some other thoughts on Week 5
More on coaches: Any chance that major boosters at Michigan State and Texas A&M are having buyer’s remorse? Moving on from Mel Tucker and Jimbo Fisher, respectively, would make Paul Chryst’s $16 million look like chump change.
Meanwhile, could the honeymoon phase be over for Brent Venables in Oklahoma? He’ll have plenty of time to fix things, of course, but Sooner fans might be scratching their heads over how a defensive guru like Venables could field a team that gave up 41 and 55 points in back-to-back losses. Saturday’s 55-24 curb-stomping at the hands of TCU was especially galling for the defense, as they surrendered plays of 73, 67, 62, and 69 yards.
It’s not all bad news on the coaching front. Kansas (5-0) and Duke (4-1) both appear to have made excellent hires. Kansas’ was last year, but Lance Leipold has backed up the hints of promise his team showed last season. As for Duke, who could have seen such an auspicious start coming? Mike Elko had a resume as a great defensive coach, but in less than a year he took a Blue Devils defense that was the very worst among the Power 5 and transformed it into a unit that is giving up just 19 points per game. And his only loss came against….Kansas. BTW, hope you enjoy the visit from College Gameday out there in Lawrence this Saturday! Well earned. The Jayhawks will be facing unbeaten TCU. If they win, Kansas will be bowl eligible for the first time in 14 years, and it will only have taken them half a season to get there. Incredible.
While Kansas, Kansas State and TCU will have something to say about it, Oklahoma State has the look of the team to beat in the Big 12 thus far, in my humble opinion. The Cowboys defense isn’t dominant like it was last season, but it got two interceptions and shut out #16 Baylor in the fourth quarter for a huge win on the road.
Hopefully Bryce Young’s shoulder sprain isn’t serious. He spent the second half on the sideline at Arkansas, still in full uniform and even had his helmet on at times. Maybe that was just some Nick Saban gamesmanship, but it suggested that maybe he could have returned if needed. I don’t believe it would have been worth the risk. More to the point, it wasn’t needed. Alabama’s running game stepped up big against Arkansas, and backup QB Jalen Milroe had a hand in that. He’s obviously a much different QB than Young, and one Arkansas did not look prepared to face.
Should Georgia fans be worried? After an unimpressive showing at home against Kent State, they trailed at Missouri for 56 minutes before pulling it out 26-22. I don’t think there’s great cause for concern. They are still among the three or so truly elite teams in the sport. But like we’ve seen with Alabama from time to time, they are by no means invincible.
The ACC had itself quite a showcase day on Saturday. At least the Atlantic Division did, which looks like it’s back to being the only division that matters. Clemson looks like it is king of the hill once again. Florida State looks like it’s not yet ready for prime time. Wake Forest and NC State appear sandwiched in between somewhere. And Syracuse continues to lurk in the weeds, waiting for its shot at the big boys (and that shot is coming, soon).
Speaking of Syracuse, that’s a nice 5-0 start they’re off to, and back in the Top 25 for the first time since early 2019. That said, it has come via a soft schedule. After a bye this coming Saturday, they have a brutal stretch that will either cement their status as a very good team, or expose them as an imposter: NC State, at Clemson, Notre Dame, at Pitt, Florida State, at Wake Forest. It’s not hard to imagine they could be headed into their season finale at Boston College sitting at 5-6, fighting just for bowl eligibility. Still, Dino Babers’ seat has to be feeling much more comfortable these days. I’d circle that NC State game as a big one for them. While the Orange will be coming off a bye, the Wolfpack will head to Western NY coming off back-to-back games against Clemson and Florida State. If nothing else, the Orange will catch one of those good teams at just the right time.
A lot of people wrote Utah off after they barely came up short at Florida in the opening week. All they have done since then is trample every opponent on their schedule. Only Oregon State may have been a decent team among those four games, but don’t take your eyes off the Utes just yet. Their next two games are against the two ranked and unbeaten LA teams, this Saturday at #18 UCLA and hosting #6 USC the week after.
As for UCLA, kudos to them for how they have snuck up on everyone so far this season. When you return a great QB on a team that won 8 games the prior year, you would think you’d get more notice. But they went into Friday’s game against Washington sitting at 4-0 and unranked. Their non-conference schedule was weak, though through no fault of their own (they were supposed to host Michigan this season, but the Wolverines backed out so they could play a milquetoast non-conference schedule of their own). Despite my accolades, I’m not all-in on the Bruins just yet. They caught lighting in a bottle, getting then-#15 Washington on a Friday night at home. Those short-week Friday games seldom go well for the visiting team.
Back to teams that were written off too soon, a lot of people seem to have forgotten about Cincinnati after their season-opening loss at Arkansas. There’s still a ways to go, but right now they would have to be the favorite to claim the G5 New Year’s Six bowl slot.
Gotta admit, I did not see that Kentucky loss at Ole Miss coming. With Chris Rodriguez back for the Wildcats, and what I believed was a suspect Rebels defense, I thought UK was going to firmly cement its Top 10 ranking. Instead, Will Levis fumbled the ball away on Kentucky’s last two possessions, both occurring deep in Ole Miss territory where the Wildcats at least had the chance to tie it with a field goal. It wasn’t a terrible day overall for Levis, but those costly turnovers won’t look good on his NFL resume. On the other side, Ole Miss freshman running back Quinshon Judkins looks like the SEC’s breakout player of the year so far, which is fortunate for them, since Jaxson Dart still hasn’t looked that great at QB.
I’m slowly crawling my way back to respectability with my weekly picks.
This week: 3-2 straight up, 4-1 ATS (Overall: 15-6 straight up, 11-9-1 ATS)