Week 6 is here, and for most teams marks the halfway point in their season. This week we have three Top 25 head-to-head matchups. For the fourth game, I decided to throw in some local flavor for the BSL crowd.
Purdue at Maryland (Noon ET, BTN)
Line: Maryland -3 | Money Line: Maryland -155, Purdue +130 | O/U: 59.5
This is a pretty even matchup on paper between two teams who aspire to higher goals than they have recently accomplished. For Maryland, they will be trying to go 5-1 for the first time since 2013, their last season in the ACC, and prove that they can be a competitive team in the Big Ten. Purdue entered the season as one of several teams in the mix to win the Big Ten West. A season-opening setback to Penn State, and a last-second loss at Syracuse two weeks later, don’t look as bad in retrospect. An upset win at Minnesota last week, combined with disappointing starts for other West contenders, gives the Boilermakers new hope. Neither team is in desperation mode, but both should view this game as “need to win” if they are to achieve their goals.
Offensively, Maryland has augmented an already solid passing attack with a rushing game that they sorely lacked last season. Whether they can come close to their 174 yards-per-game rushing average against a stingy Boilermaker defense will be a challenge (allowing 2.95 yards-per-carry, 19th in the country). Their pass defense is also good in terms of yards allowed (214 per game), and opportunistic (7 interceptions, 2 returned for TDs), but they also surrender a lot of “hidden yards” in penalties. If Maryland’s deep receiver corps can attack the secondary, one way or another they could move the ball. Another plus for the Terps is that with George Karlaftis gone to the NFL, Purdue has not pressured quarterbacks nearly as well.
Like Maryland, on offense Purdue has been able to get much more out of their running game this season versus last year. That’s been crucial, as QB Aidan O’Connell has battled a nagging rib injury suffered at Syracuse, and missed their next game against Florida Atlantic. He returned against Minnesota, but clearly wasn’t 100%. He should be a go this week, but his health remains in question. Maryland may try to get some hits on him early, just to see. It would help tremendously if Purdue can continue to run the ball effectively. Running backs Devin Mockobee and Dylan Downing have done a great job filling in for the injured King Doerue, who is doubtful to return this week. Maryland’s defense has held every running back not named Blake Corum in check so far this season. Luckily for the Terps, Blake Corum will not be suiting up for the Boilermakers. Fully healthy or not, O’Connell is likely going to have to get it done through the air to win.
This feels like a coin-toss kind of game. Maryland being a 3-point favorite is probably based on playing at home, but I lean more in their direction based on health question marks for Purdue.
My Pick: Maryland -3 | Maryland -155
#8 Tennessee at #25 LSU (Noon ET, ESPN)
Line: Tennessee -3 | Money Line: Tennessee -145, LSU +122 | O/U: 63.5
This will be the first time the Vols have played in Baton Rouge since 2010 (FIX THIS, SEC!!!). After a tough season-opening loss, LSU has won four straight, including a comeback win at Auburn last week (albeit a game they probably should have lost). This is one of those games where you are left to determine who has the edge in a strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness matchup. Tennessee has mostly lived up to their preseason hype so far. They’ve knocked off Pitt and Florida, though both games showed their defense is a big question mark, and enter this game off a bye.
Tennessee is scoring 48.5 points per game (#2 in the country) and averaging nearly 560 yards of offense per game (#1) and 7.38 yards per play (#5). They love to use tempo to exploit opponents’ depth, and LSU has depth issues. Tennessee averages 75.75 plays per game, 10th in the nation. LSU does have a good defense. The Tigers have allowed just 14.8 points per game and lead the SEC in forced turnovers with 12. LSU has 13 sacks and four interceptions. In their big comeback at Mississippi State, they avoided having their lack of depth exposed in the second half by forcing two turnovers, 2 three-and-outs, and two other possessions of just 4 plays. Can they replicate that against Tennessee? The Vols average 26.75 first downs per game, 8th in the country, and once their offense gets a first down they really put the pedal to the metal. The Tigers have their work cut out for them.
LSU hasn’t been very good on offense. Their season averages in yards per game and scoring are significantly inflated by games against New Mexico State and Southern. Against Power 5 competition they average just 25 points a game. Their best output against a respectable opponent was the MSU game where they scored 31; but again, they were aided by good field position thanks to turnovers and their defense. Counting on that against Tennessee feels like a recipe for failure. They are going to have to manufacture more offense. The good news is they are facing a pretty weak defense. The Vols game against Florida might be a good comparison for what to expect. In that game they faced a QB, Anthony Richardson, who profiles similarly to Tigers’ QB Jayden Daniels. Tennessee sold out to stop Richardson from beating them by running the ball. While they were largely successful at that, it badly exposed their secondary to where Richardson had a career day throwing (24-44, 453 yards, 2 TDs). Daniels could very well do the same, especially with better receivers at his disposal than Richardson had (could this be WR Kayshon Boutte’s breakout game?).
This feels like a game that one team or the other will win comfortably. Problem is, it’s hard to decide which team that may be. LSU is at home. On the other hand, they’ve had special teams issues this season. The Vols also have had a bye week to rest and prepare. Advantage, Tennessee.
My Pick: Tennessee -3 | Tennessee -145
#17 TCU at #19 Kansas (Noon ET, FS1)
Line: TCU -7 | Money Line: TCU -278, Kansas +222 | O/U: 67.5
It’s fun to see traditional basketball powerhouses have football success. Kansas, Duke, UNC and UCLA are a combined 18-2 so far. For the Jayhawks, the success has been a long time coming. They are ranked in the AP poll for the first time since October 18, 2009, which was the longest current drought for any Power 5 team. Their exploits thus far earned them a visit from ESPN’s College Gameday crew, their first ever. They will host another team that many didn’t see coming. TCU’s ascent into the polls has been quieter, since it hasn’t been nearly as long for them. But their 55-24 beatdown of Oklahoma announced their presence loud and clear. Sonny Dykes has the Horned Frogs’ offense rolling in his first season.
Frogs’ QB Max Duggan appears to have “Wally Pipp’d” Week 1 starter Chandler Morris. Since subbing in for an injured Morris at Colorado, Duggan has gone 70-of–94, 997 yards, 11 TDs and 0 INTs, which is tops in the country in passing efficiency. That said, TCU’s offense (#2 in yards per game and #1 in yards per play) is very well-balanced, with a 54 to 46% differential between passing and rushing yardage gained, respectively. That’s a very potent attack against a Jayhawks defense that isn’t great overall, though did have an impressive outing last week against Iowa State – allowing just 11 points, 26 yards rushing and 213 overall. While a similar showing this weekend seems unlikely, Kansas must slow down the Horned Frog attack somewhat.
Kansas, as they have all season, and 2021 too, will rely heavily on QB Jalon Daniels to carry the load. The breakout Heisman candidate has done it all for the nation’s #12 scoring offense. Like TCU, the Jayhawks offense is a balanced attack, boasting similar splits in passing vs rushing yards. TCU’s defense is only marginally better than Kansas’ overall, though they too are coming off their best performance of the season so far in holding Oklahoma to 24 points, with 7 of those coming in garbage time. They will have to be mindful of Daniels at all times.
As you can probably surmise, this game has the makings of a shootout. TCU has the more potent attack overall, and I like them to win in a close one.
My Pick: Kansas +7, TCU -278
#11 Utah at #18 UCLA (3:30pm ET, FOX)
Line: Utah -3.5 | Money Line: Utah -178, UCLA +150 | O/U: 65
The Bruins host their second straight Top 15 visitor, hoping to let the country know their 5-0 start is no fluke. They’d probably settle for letting their fans know, who have a habit of showing up to the Rose Bowl dressed as empty seats. Even if they do show up (as actual humans), the Utes will no doubt find the environs much more hospitable than their season-opening trek to The Swamp. Since that narrow loss, Utah has had a relatively easy time dispatching of their opponents, demonstrating that they may have been written off too quickly. Beating a ranked opponent will only make that more obvious.
The Utes average 42 points per game, though that may be a little deceiving, as they scored 73 on lowly FCS Southern Utah. Still, they have averaged 34.3 in their other four games, three of those against Power 5 competition. They can score. One slight disappointment so far has been RB Tavion Thomas, who was first-team All Pac-12 last year, but thus far has just 73 yards on 17 carries in two conference games. Some of that slack has been picked up by freshman back Jaylon Glover. QB Cameron Rising is a true dual threat as well, and is averaging 8.2 yards on 23 running attempts. They will be up against a Bruins defense that has been a very pleasant surprise. After being the weak link on last season’s 8-win team, they have played much better, thanks in large part to several transfers – notably, LB Laiatu Latu (Washington) and DLs Grayson and Gabriel Murphy (North Texas). The Bruins are allowing just 80 yards per game rushing, 6th lowest in the nation, and 29th in total yards surrendered.
As good as the Bruins’ defense has been, Utah’s has been better. They are 11th in the country in points allowed (14.4 per game) and 13th in yardage (278.6 per game). However, the only other time they have faced a QB like UCLA’s Dorian Thompson Robinson is when they went up against Florida’s Anthony Richardson. Richardson, of course, got the better of the Utes in Week 1, torching them via the ground and air. DTR is very capable of the same, and probably even more lethal passing. The Utes will have to be mindful of him on every single play. An interesting matchup to follow is Bruins WR Jake Bobo vs. Utah CB Clark Phillips III. Bobo, a Duke transfer, has been DTR’s top receiving option. He had six receptions for 142 yards and 2 TDs in their 40-32 win over Washington. He will face a tough challenge from one of the best cover corners in college football. Phillips had three interceptions last week against Oregon State, returning one 38 yards for a touchdown, and is now up to 4 picks in two conference games.
My Pick: Utah -3.5, Utah -178