So far this season, this space has been reserved for discussing the dismissal of a head coach, or in the case of last week, multiple head coaches. But Black Sunday after Week 6 came and went mostly quietly, with only a couple coordinators being replaced. There was a noteworthy piece of news coming out of the NFL Monday morning, however. Matt Rhule was let go by the Carolina Panthers. Rhule was a very successful head coach at the collegiate level, having twice won 10 games in four seasons at Temple, and winning 11 games at Baylor in 2019 – just three seasons after taking over in the wake of the Art Briles catastrophe. Rhule never found the same success in the NFL, though in all fairness, the personnel folks at Carolina didn’t exactly give him much to work with, especially at the quarterback position. Anyway, you can expect Rhule’s name to be mentioned for just about every Power 5 job, both current openings and any others that may be coming. He’ll collect $40 million from the Panthers, so he can certainly afford to take his time getting back into the game if he wants. But at 47, in what is considered the prime years of a head coach’s career, I don’t imagine he’ll want to stay on the sideline for very long.
Here are my thoughts on what we saw in Week 6:
While no new openings came up, it was a great week for 2022’s interim head coaches. Nebraska’s Mickey Joseph won his second straight as the Huskers rallied at Rutgers 14-13. Shaun Aguano’s Arizona State team played USC tough last week, then upset No. 21 Washington 45-38. Wisconsin hammered Northwestern 42-7 in Jim Leonhard’s debut. And Georgia Tech’s Brent Key followed up last week’s upset of Pitt by beating Duke 23-20 in OT. Colorado had a bye week, so Mike Sanford didn’t have the opportunity to make it 5-for-5 for interims. He’ll get his first shot this Saturday at home against Cal.
When I saw that Bryce Young would not be playing, I thought there was a decent chance underdog Texas A&M could cover the 24-point spread against Alabama. I never imagined they’d have a chance to win on the final play from the Tide’s 2-yard line. I understand the rationale behind Jimbo Fisher’s decision on that final play to get the ball out quickly. Alabama’s defensive front had been teeing off on QB Haynes King for much of the night, and especially in the 4th Quarter. Still, I would have gone another direction than a 1-yard sideline route (especially with the ball at the 2) to a receiver in press coverage, and not even give King a second option or a chance to check-out. Alabama’s corner got there and made contact early, and 99% of the time probably would have been called for interference, but you almost never see a flag on those types of last-play situations – especially against Alabama in Tuscaloosa. It was a gutty showing by the Aggies, but nagging questions about their offense aren’t going away. As for Alabama, even with a backup QB it was a sloppy offensive showing (4 turnovers, 2 missed FGs). They need to hope Young’s healthy when they head to Tennessee this week.
The Volunteers, by the way, sure looked like the real deal in easily dispatching LSU in Baton Rouge. Tennessee recovered an LSU fumble on the opening kickoff and got a touchdown five plays later, the start of four straight possessions ending in a score, and never looked back. The last time the Vols beat Alabama, the Tide were coached by Mike Shula (2006). Alabama is an early 7.5 point favorite, but with this Tennessee team and the game in Knoxville, it feels like now or never if the Vols are to get a win in the Nick Saban era. Especially if Bryce Young still can’t go – though unless Nick Saban was being intentionally coy and misleading about how close Young was to playing against A&M (and he just might have been), one would think he’ll play.
I’m not entirely sold on Clemson being the unquestioned #4 team in the country. They seem almost certainly a tier below the Big Three (Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State). But right now, they would appear to have the inside track to a playoff berth. The ACC looks like it’s back to being what it was from 2015-20 – Clemson, and everyone else. The Tigers have already passed what figure to be their toughest tests in-conference, Wake Forest and NC State. Florida State looks like they are still in pretender status, and I think when it’s said and done we’ll say the same of Syracuse. The Coastal Division seems unlikely to put up much of a fight in the championship game. Their most difficult remaining hurdles are probably two non-conference games – at Notre Dame November 5th and against South Carolina to finish the regular season.
Notre Dame has very quietly rebounded from a rough start. A lot of people may have forgotten about them after the ugly loss against Marshall, and a narrow win against Cal the next week probably didn’t change a lot of opinions. But since then they have beaten very solid UNC and BYU teams, both away from home. They appear to have finally gotten their offense untracked, and it might be time to consider putting them back into the rankings.
The Big 12 looks like the deepest conference outside the southeast quadrant of the US. They currently have five ranked teams, any of whom could legitimately win the conference title, and that doesn’t include Baylor, who I think are still a Top 25 team and only have one loss in conference so far. That list also doesn’t include Texas Tech or Iowa State, who are capable of knocking off one of the top teams in any given week. Surprisingly, that list also does not include Oklahoma, who are a sieve defensively and sit at the bottom of the standings right now. This of course presents a conundrum for the Big 12. It’s great to have so many good teams, and there is plenty of national respect given to them with it. But it also makes it likely they could cannibalize each other to the point where their champion has more than one loss and is left out of the playoff field. It’s situations like this that add fuel to the fire for the CFP expansion proponents. Their time will obviously come, eventually. But for this year, the Big 12 may be a victim of its own success.
The Pac-12 has had a somewhat decent season so far, at least by its own recent standards. Going into Week 7 they had five teams ranked in the Top 25. That’s the most they’ve had since Week 5 of 2019; and really, it feels like it should be a lot longer ago than that. But if you are holding futures stock in the conference, it wasn’t a particularly good week. If it wasn’t already obvious, it became crystal clear on Saturday that the two best teams in the conference are UCLA and USC. As we know, both of those schools have one foot out the door. At this point, it pretty much feels like whatever they do is irrelevant for the reputation of the remaining ten schools as a conference. Worse, Washington, one of the hoped-for tentpole schools after USC and UCLA depart, laid an egg at hapless Arizona State. Only Oregon looks like it might have a shot at spoiling the possibility of the LA schools playing for the conference title, and perhaps a playoff berth, in Las Vegas on December 2.
Making matters worse for the Pac-12 is how their lousy TV deal continues to hurt their exposure. The most exciting moment of the day in the conference, and probably the wildest finish in all college football for Week 6, came when Oregon State pulled out a last-second win at Stanford with a 56-yard touchdown pass, highlighted by a circus catch, with just 13 seconds left. Too bad so few people across America heard about it, much less actually watched it. That’s because the play occurred shortly after 2am on the East Coast. It’s the second time Oregon State had a thrilling finish, the other being their do-or-die 4th Down walk-off TD at Fresno State. Both came in the wee hours of Sunday morning for three-quarters of the US population. By the time anyone who was fast asleep at that hour got word of it, it no longer mattered. Come Sunday morning the football world is in full NFL mode. It may as well have never happened. As long as the networks view and treat their games as graveyard shift content, the Pac-12 cannot change the narrative of its football product.
It’s been pretty hit-or-miss as far as instant success for Year 1 coaches. Lincoln Riley (USC) and Sonny Dykes (TCU) look like resounding successes, so far. Others, not so much. Brent Venables (Oklahoma) and Mario Cristobal (Miami), who were both widely viewed as home run hires at the time, are having their struggles. Truth is, it’s tough in the era of the transfer portal and early signing period to really hit the ground running as far as first year results. Roster attrition/turnover is tough when you are trying to build a system and culture in your program. No one is suggesting that guys like Venables and Cristobal won’t be successful based on only a half season of results. On the other hand, in an era where schools will drop a 10-figure buyout like it’s lunch money, honeymoon periods don’t tend to last very long.
Speaking of coaches who got off to a rocky Year 1 start, I’m betting Steve Sarkisian has now won some hearts and minds in the Lone Star State. If Texas’ near-upset of Alabama (with the Horns’ starting QB knocked out in the 1st Qtr) wasn’t enough for the UT faithful, then the 49-0 demolition of Oklahoma certainly must have been.
Sun Belt Talk: James Madison, in their first season as an FBS program, has cracked the AP Top 25 at 5-0. Even considering their success at the FCS level (two-time national champions), that has to be considered a resounding success in a debut. Still, I think Coastal Carolina is the team to beat in the conference. The two teams meet in the final week of the regular season. Unfortunately, per NCAA rules, JMU is ineligible for postseason play as they “transition” to FBS. Meanwhile, Appalachian State returned to the near-proximity of one of the program’s great triumphs, it’s victory over then #6 Texas A&M in Week 2. The Lone Star redux wasn’t nearly as successful, and they were beaten handily by Texas State, 36-24. Go figure.
It was a week I will do my best to forget as far as my picks went.
This week: 2-2 straight up, 1-2-1 ATS (Overall: 17-8 straight up, 12-11-2 ATS)