If the five head-to-head ranked matchups we saw back in Week 5 weren’t enough for you, then I’m not sure what is….but….how about SIX?
#10 Penn State at #5 Michigan (Noon ET, FOX)
Line: Michigan -7 | Money Line: Michigan -267, Penn State +215 | O/U: 50.5
This game will likely determine who is going to be the challenger to Ohio State for Big Ten East supremacy. It will feature two great defenses. I think. It’s tough to evaluate just how good a defense is when they have primarily gone against terrible offenses, which is the case for both teams. For the Wolverines, Maryland is the only competent offense they have faced in six games (the Terps are 39th in scoring). After that, Indiana is the highest scoring offense they’ve played….at 98th in the country. Four of the offenses they have faced are bottom ten in the nation in scoring (UConn, Hawaii, Iowa and Colorado State). The picture isn’t that much prettier when looking at Penn State’s opponents, with three of five having scoring offenses ranked 88th or worse (Central Michigan, Auburn and Northwestern), and the other two in the 40s (Ohio and Purdue).
Offensively, the Wolverines have the decided edge. They are 7th in the country in scoring (43 ppg) 28th in yards per game (458.7) and 17th in yards per play (6.88). They feature RB Blake Corum, who has run for 500 yards, for nearly 6 yards per carry, and four touchdowns in three Big Ten games. He ranks third in the nation with 735 yards rushing overall, including a 19-plus yard run in every game, and is second in FBS with 11 scores. He’ll be challenged facing a Penn State defense that is giving up just 79.6 yards rushing per game, 5th in the country. Passing-wise, Michigan QB JJ McCarthy has completed 78% of his passes, tops in the country. Penn State has allowed opponents to complete just 49.6% of their passes, also the nation’s best.
Penn State is in the 30s in the major offensive categories. They feature a much better run-pass balance than in the recent past. RBs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton are averaging a combined 153.2 rushing yards per game. QB Sean Clifford is just 56th in pass efficiency so far. He was just 10-20, 140 yards, 1 TD and an interception last week against Northwestern, though the game was played in terrible weather conditions. The one time they really needed him, in the game-winning drive at Purdue, he came through.
My theme here is probably obvious - the competition has been pretty light for these teams. While I do believe both are deserving of their Top 10 rankings at this time, this game should give us a better idea of just how good they are. While the offenses are good, very good in Michigan’s case, I see this as a low-scoring affair, if you are inclined to take the 50.5 point under. That also makes it likely the 7 point spread might be too high. Though I do like the Wolverines to prevail at home and with the better offense.
My Pick: Penn State +7, Michigan -267
#3 Alabama @ #6 Tennessee (3:30pm ET, CBS)
Line: Alabama -7.5 | Money Line: Alabama -292, Tennessee +235 | O/U: 66
Tennessee seeks their first ever win against a Nick Saban-coached Alabama team. That they play every year as division crossover rivals, and that Saban has been at Alabama since 2007, puts that ignominious factoid into perspective. This is feels like Tennessee’s best shot since 2016, when the Vols were ranked #9 and hosted the Tide in Knoxville. The result was a 49-10 Alabama win, the most lopsided result in the series in over 100 years.
We will be treated to a matchup of two of the most elite sides in the sport so far this season - Tennessee’s offense versus Alabama’s defense. Tennessee racks up the most yards per game in the country (548) and is second to Ohio State in scoring (46.8 points per game). Alabama surrenders the second fewest yards per play in the nation (3.77), and the sixth fewest in both yards per game (250.8) and points per game (12.5). These sorts of matchups usually, but not always, favor the offense. While the Vols are very unlikely to hit their season averages, they should be able to move the ball and get some points if they execute well. They’ll be helped by playing at home, so audibles and snap counts are on the table.
Ultimately this game should come down to two things. 1) Does Bryce Young play? 2) If he does, is his sprained throwing shoulder healthy enough for him to be effective? Nothing will be made official until game day, but all indications seem to point to him playing. He doesn’t have to be 100%. 85% would probably be good enough for the offense to keep pace with Tennessee and give the Tide a chance to win. Tennessee’s bend-don’t-break defense will be tested if Young plays. They are 22nd in the country in points allowed per game, but 87th in yards per game. As you would expect with those numbers, they buckle down in the red zone, allowing scores on just 65% of opponent red zone trips (6th lowest in the country) and touchdowns just 40% of the time. The alternative to Young playing is that the Vols get to face Jalen Milroe at QB. While Milroe can beat you running (see: Week 5 at Arkansas), he showed against Texas A&M last week he can’t always get the ball to open receivers and can be turnover-prone (2 fumbles and 1 interception). I don’t give the Tide much of a chance if they have to play Milroe, but again, I don’t think that’ll be the case.
My Pick: Tennessee +7.5, Alabama -292
#8 Oklahoma State @ #13 TCU (3:30pm ET, ABC)
Line: TCU -3.5 | Money Line: TCU -190, Oklahoma St +158 | O/U: 68.5
As competitive and wide open as the Big 12 is, it seems like every week features a matchup that will determine who plays for the conference championship, and this week is no exception. Oklahoma State and TCU are the two remaining Big 12 teams with unbeaten overall records, and two of three still unbeaten in-conference (Kansas State is the other). Both feature high-scoring offenses (TCU 3rd in FBS, Oklahoma State 4th) and somewhat suspect defenses (54th and 58th in points allowed, respectively).
The Horned Frogs are led by QB Max Duggan, the country’s second-most efficient passer. Duggan has completed 93 of 127 passes (career-best 73%) for 1,305 yards with a Big 12-best 14 touchdowns and one interception. Remarkable, since Duggan had lost his job as starter headed into the season, regaining it only when Chandler Morris sprained a knee in the opening game of the season. Duggan’s efficient passing is matched by a strong running game for TCU, averaging over 230 yards per game, 13th in the country. Their offensive line is good too, having allowed just 7 sacks in six games so far. This will be a tough ask for an OSU defense that is a shell of the Top 10 unit it was last year, surrendering 423 yards and nearly 25 points per game.
The good news for the Cowboys is they should be able to score as well. While a bit more erratic than his TCU counterpart, QB Spencer Sanders leads the Big 12 with 327 total yards per game, 278.8 yards passing per game, and 18 total touchdowns (12 passing, six rushing). Sanders has cut down on the turnovers so far this season, and that is huge. With Sanders being a dual-threat, OSU is able to run the ball very effectively - 158.6 yards per game. TCU’s defense is only marginally better than Oklahoma State’s, statistically speaking. Their 402.8 yards per game allowed is 93rd in the country, and 5.5 yards per play allowed not much better.
Expect a high-scoring affair. I like TCU to prevail, being at home, marginally better on both sides of the ball, and better on the turnover scorecard (+4 vs +1 for OSU).
My Pick: TCU -3.5, TCU -190
#15 NC State @ #18 Syracuse (3:30pm ET, ACC Network)
Line: Syracuse -3.5 | Money Line: Syracuse -150, NC State +178 | O/U: 43
It’s time to see if Syracuse is for real. Take nothing away from their win against Purdue, but that last-minute TD drive was aided tremendously by self-inflicted wounds on the Boilermakers’ part. Aside from that, their opponents thus far are a combined 8-16. This is another game that could come down to the health status of a starting QB - NC State’s Devin Leary, who left last week’s game against Florida State with an injured throwing shoulder and is day-to-day. Leary’s replacement, Jack Chambers, attempted just one pass (incomplete) over the final quarter-plus against FSU.
As you would expect for the team with the much easier schedule, Syracuse holds the edge over NC State in pretty much every major offensive and defensive category. On the flip side, ESPN’s Power Index rates NC State’s schedule 31st in the country. Syracuse sits at #115 in those rankings - though their remaining schedule is 23rd.
I have a low degree of confidence in picking this game because of Leary. The Wolfpack camp has been very tight-lipped about his status. That sounds like a bad sign for him to play, but it could be gamesmanship too. If I were a bettor, I’d advise staying away from this one unless we here more before Saturday. But I’ll make a pick, because that’s what I do. I think Leary sits it out, and the Orange seize the opportunity.
My Pick: Syracuse -3.5, Syracuse -150
#16 Mississippi State @ #22 Kentucky (7:30pm ET, SEC Network)
Line: Mississippi State -4 | Money Line: Mississippi State -190, Kentucky +158 | O/U: 49
Here’s two teams I thought were overlooked somewhat in the preseason. Mississippi State is a very experienced team, and Mike Leach has historically done well with veteran groups, especially at QB (Will Rogers is a 3-year starter). They had a big hiccup in the second half of the LSU game at home. Other than that, it’s been smooth sailing so far. Kentucky jumped out to a great start, hoping to challenge Tennessee to be the leading contender to knock Georgia off its SEC East perch. But the Wildcats have seen their season go sideways after a tough loss at Ole Miss, followed by a truly ugly showing in a home loss to South Carolina.
It turns out Kentucky QB Will Levis suffered an injury to his left foot in the game at Ole Miss. He did not play last week, and the Wildcats’ offense sputtered badly. The Gamecocks held them to just 14 points (7 coming in garbage time) and under 300 yards of offense. South Carolina is not exactly a great defense either. UK was hurt by mediocre QB-play (again, minus Levis) and turnovers (RB Chris Rodriguez’s fumble on the game’s play from scrimmage set the tone for the day). No matter who the QB is for Kentucky, he must get better protection from the offensive line - their 25 sacks allowed are third most in the nation.
Mississippi State has quietly laid the groundwork for a nice season. They’d probably be getting a lot more attention if not for the bad second half against LSU. Their average per game in scoring and yardage gained aren’t setting the world on fire (25th and 26th, respectively), but still quite good. Their defense is just 55th in yards allowed, but ranks a respectable 39th in points per game allowed (21).
This feels like a very pivotal game for both teams. The Bulldogs’ schedule gets rough after this (3 of their final 5 games are at Alabama, Georgia and at Ole Miss). I think Kentucky is the better team here, particularly at home. However, I don’t have great confidence in them right now due to the health of Levis (he’s expected to play, but at what effectiveness?) and the mental/emotional aspect of a potentially great season getting away from them. This is where coach Mark Stoops might be the difference-maker. If he can keep his team’s focus forward and not on what might have been, they could bounce back. If not, they could be caught in a tailspin.
My Pick: Kentucky +4, Kentucky +158
#7 USC @ #20 Utah (8:00pm ET, FOX)
Line: Utah -3.5 | Money Line: Utah -160, USC +135 | O/U: 65
Prior to the season, this game was one many had picked to be a preview of the Pac-12 Championship Game. It could still be - but UCLA’s emergence, and Oregon still lurking, mean it is one of many important games.
Utah, the consensus preseason favorite to win the conference, had a rough go of it last week. They ran into an offensive buzzsaw against the Bruins in Pasadena. The normally stout Ute defense gave up 42 points and over 500 yards. Once again, like at Florida, they struggled badly against a dynamic quarterback, even though Dorian Thompson-Robinson seldom took off running. Of course, he didn’t really need to, with RB Zack Charbonnet gouging them for 198 yards and 9.0 yards per carry. Offensively they did put up a lot of yards on the Bruins, but only scored 18 points (their last TD came on a Pick-6 thanks to an odd, and ill-advised decision by UCLA to throw a pass while trying to kill the clock with under 1 minute left). QB Cam Rising did score two touchdowns running, but was mostly mediocre passing. The Bruins were by far the Utes’ toughest opponent since Week 1 against the Gators, and they were clearly not up to the challenge.
Meanwhile, the Trojans have undergone a bit of a metamorphosis of late. After looking like an offensive juggernaut in their first three games, they’ve sputtered a good bit, especially in games at Oregon State and home against Washington State. But their defense, led by DL Tuli Tuipulotu, was able to pick up the slack both times. Utah still has a very good pass defense, led by Clark Phillips III, on of the best CBs in the country. I think the Trojans are going to need a huge game from RB Travis Dye to win. Dye did show up for the two aforementioned games where the offense struggled. QB Caleb Williams might need to beat the Utes with his legs too, much like Anthony Richardson did at Florida.
I think Utah being at home matters here. It will be a full-throated crowd, and the Utes are 4-3 against the Trojans all-time at Rice Eccles.
My Pick: Utah -3.5, Utah -160