#14 Syracuse at #5 Clemson (Noon ET, ABC)
Line: Clemson -13.5 | Money Line: Clemson -550, Syracuse +400 | O/U: 49.5
Sole possession of first place in the Atlantic Division is up for grabs in this game. For Clemson, a win would make it practically a foregone conclusion that they will be playing for their seventh conference title in eight years in Charlotte come December. Meanwhile, Syracuse is still trying to prove to skeptics that their 6-0 record is for real, rather than the product of a light schedule. Both of these teams have very good defenses, so the offensive playmakers will need to step up.
QB DJ Uiagalelei was always going to be the key to Clemson’s hopes, and so far he has answered the bell. While his 64% completion percentage is middling, his 19 touchdown passes to just 2 interceptions is a very good ratio. The key to everything has been his re-discovered running ability. He has already rushed for more yards on designed runs in 7 games (319) the he did in 13 games last season (312). Better health and dropping nearly 30 pounds in the offseason have been the difference-maker for him. The Tigers will likely need to call on his dual-threat abilities against a stingy Orange defense.
Syracuse features a lethal dual-threat QB of its own in Garrett Shrader. While primarily only effective on the ground in 2021, Shrader is having a much better season passing so far. His completion rate is up by over 17 percentage points, and his yards per attempt is 9.4, as opposed to just 6.2 last season. RB Sean Tucker’s numbers are off slightly from ’21, though that may be largely due to a more balanced offense, and he’s still been very good. The Orange will need both Tucker and Shrader to be productive on the ground against a Clemson run defense that allows just 82.7 yards per game, fourth fewest in the nation. Shrader’s ability to stretch the field with his arm will also be crucial, as Clemson’s secondary has been vulnerable at times.
I have a hard time seeing an upset in this one, especially with Clemson playing at home. But with two good defenses, 13.5 seems like a wide spread. I think Syracuse has enough playmakers on offense to make it closer than that.
My Pick: Syracuse +13.5, Clemson -550
#9 UCLA at #10 Oregon (3:30pm ET, FOX)
Line: Oregon -6 | Money Line: Oregon -235, UCLA +192 | O/U: 71.5
Chip Kelly makes another return to Autzen Stadium, and the stakes in this one are high for the only Pac-12 teams yet to suffer a conference loss. The winner will be in the driver’s seat to play for the title in the newly reconfigured conference standings. Vegas expects a lot of scoring in this one – and why not? This matchup features two offenses averaging over 40 points per game and over 500 yards per game, going up against two somewhat suspect defenses.
Both offenses are explosive thanks to fourth-year and fifth-year starters at quarterback. After a rough opener against Georgia, Oregon’s Bo Nix has been efficient via the air and ground, as the inconsistency that plagued him at Auburn appears to have faded in his reunion with offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham. For UCLA Dorian Thompson-Robinson surprised some with his decision to pass up the NFL and return to college for a fifth season That choice appears to have paid off, as DTR is having by far his highest-rated passing season, no doubt pleasing NFL scouts, and even putting himself in the Heisman Trophy discussion. The Bruins aerial attack is augmented by RB Zach Charbonnet, a 6’1” powerhouse who also possesses a lethal finesse, and is averaging over 7 yards per carry. The Ducks’ running game is just as solid, albeit more by committee than any one player, though Minnesota transfer RB Bucky Irving appears to be emerging as their go-to back.
This game will likely come down to the defenses. The Bruins have been better on that side of the ball this season, allowing 345 yards per game (33rd in the country) and 22.7 points (44th). They did give up a lot more yards in their two most recent games, against Washington and Utah, but limited the damage on the scoreboard both times. For the Ducks, their numbers are largely the result of two poor games away from home, against Georgia in Atlanta and at Washington State. They surrendered a combined 90 points and 999 yards in those games. They have been more respectable otherwise, but UCLA’s offense is much more on the level of teams that have exposed their defense.
I think home field plays a role here. Even taking into account the quality of the opponent, Oregon’s defense is much more respectable at home. Meanwhile, the Bruins have not been road tested at all – their only game outside the Rose Bowl thus far was at Colorado, who are obviously not on Oregon’s level. That said, 6 points feels like a wide spread for two evenly-matched teams, so I think I will split this one.
My Pick: UCLA +6, Oregon -235
#20 Texas at #11 Oklahoma State (3:30pm ET, ABC)
Line: Texas -6.5 | Money Line: Texas -240, Oklahoma State +196 | O/U: 61
This is a crucial game for both teams to stay in the hunt for one of the top two spots in the Big 12. With each already taking a conference loss, and two currently unbeaten teams ahead of them in the standings, a second loss would be costly.
Since returning from a collarbone injury suffered in Week 2, ‘Horns QB Quinn Ewers has cemented his status as the unquestioned starter. He was nearly flawless against Oklahoma on October 8th, and led a comeback last week against Iowa State. He’s going against a very leaky defense in Oklahoma State, though a big game from RB Bijan Robinson would help alleviate any pressure Ewers may have in his first true road game. He’ll also need a good day from his offensive line – there is one thing the Cowboys do well as a defense, and that is pressuring the QB (they lead the conference with 2.83 sacks per game).
The Cowboys’ offense has put up plenty of points (45.3 ppg, 4th in FBS), though it failed to score a single touchdown in the second half in last week’s loss at TCU – and QB Spencer Sanders has completed fewer than 50% of his passes in each of the past two games. Still, even with inconsistent passing numbers, Sanders can, and will, hurt you on the ground (309 yards and 8 TDs rushing this season). But the Cowboys will need a full 60 minutes from their offense against the Longhorns.
As well as Texas has been playing of late, going on the road to play the #11 team in the country as a 6.5 point favorite feels way off to me. I like the Cowboys to bounce back, straight up.
My Pick: Oklahoma State +6.5, Oklahoma State +196
#24 Mississippi State at #6 Alabama (7pm ET, ESPN)
Line: Alabama -21 | Money Line: Alabama -1,700, Miss. State +950 | O/U: 60.5
I have a feeling Mike Leach might like a word with the SEC’s scheduling department. This will be the third time in four years that Mississippi State faces Alabama with the Tide coming off a loss. Obviously, that’s just a coincidence, but it doesn’t help the Bulldogs’ chances of ending a 14-game losing streak in this series. This game could also feature a lot of yellow – as in flags. Alabama leads the country in racking up the most penalties, while Mississippi State is 26th in that category.
Bryce Young continues to make the nearly-impossible look easy. He almost single-handedly led the Tide to a comeback win at Tennessee last week, with a missed 50-yard field goal with just 15 seconds remaining the likely difference-maker. He has often had to run for his life and/or pull Houdini-like acts to escape the pass rush, and that may be a feature this week, as the Bulldogs are pressuring opponents at a rate of 28.1% of drop backs, among the SEC’s best. While the Alabama offensive line struggles to protect Young, they have vastly improved over 2021 in opening holes for the running game, averaging a nation’s best 6.55 yards per carry. With MSU surrendering nearly 153 yards per game on the ground, expect a big day from RB Jahmyr Gibbs.
Bulldogs’ QB Will Rogers is having a big season, ranking third in the country in touchdown passes (23) and second in passing yards (2,324). However, as the Air Raid offense typically focuses on short-to-intermediate passes, Rogers is only averaging 10.19 yards per completion, 112th in the country. As Tennessee demonstrated very well last weekend, the way to score consistently on Alabama is to attack their secondary deep, and if you have success there it opens everything else up for you. Mike Leach’s offense simply isn’t built for that, which is a big reason why the Bulldogs have scored a total of just 9 points in their two meetings in the Leach-era.
I don’t see how Alabama loses this game. My pick comes down to how I feel about the spread. The 21-points is enormous for a game featuring a ranked underdog. But again, Mississippi State’s offense just isn’t built to score on Alabama. The Tide would have to make some unforced errors for it to be that close – which we have seen them do several times this season. But their penalty problems seem to be a product of them playing on the road (they average about 6 per game at home…not great, but certainly not terrible). There was also the Texas A&M game, which was in Tuscaloosa, had a similar spread as this one, and came down to the final play. But Alabama played their backup QB, turned the ball over 4 times (3 of them by said backup QB) and missed 2 field goal attempts. I think they’re too good to have that happen again.
My Pick: Alabama -21, Alabama -1,700
#17 Kansas State at #8 TCU (8pm ET, FS1)
Line: TCU -3.5 | Money Line: TCU -170, Kansas State +143 | O/U: 54
Like the Pac-12, the Big 12’s two lone unbeaten teams in-conference square off this week. Kansas State’s one loss was by 3 points to Tulane, which doesn’t seem as bad in retrospect. Since then, the Wildcats stunned Oklahoma in Norman, cruised at home against Texas Tech, and squeaked by Iowa State in Ames. Now they go on the road for their biggest test thus far, after a bye last week to rest and prepare. Meanwhile, TCU will be facing its fourth consecutive ranked opponent and will have to guard against a letdown after last week’s exciting, but potentially draining, come-from-behind double-overtime win against Oklahoma State.
TCU is third in the country in both points scored and yardage gained per game. They feature a solid pass-run balance, averaging well over 200 yards per game each. QB Max Duggan continues to be one of the most efficient passers in the country, ranking 6th in that category. His favorite target is WR Quentin Johnson, who followed up his career-best 14-catch, 206-yard performance against Kansas two weeks ago with eight catches for 180 yards against Oklahoma State last weekend. He had a TD catch in both games. Kansas State will need a big game from future NFL edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah, who has 6.5 sacks so far this season. Sacks won’t come easy against TCU, though – they have allowed just three in games against conference opponents thus far.
For the Wildcats, Nebraska transfer QB Adrian Martinez continues to be one of the great redemption stories of the 2022 season. He and future NFL RB Deuce Vaughn are the only QB/RB combo in the country to each have more than 500 yards rushing. Martinez has 546 yards with nine rushing TDs, while Vaughn has 661 yards and three TDs. Martinez’s passing numbers are much more modest, but he has yet to turn the ball over this season, something that plagued him at Nebraska. TCU’s defense can be leaky, so KSU will likely want to play a ball-control style that keeps the Frogs’ offense on the bench – but I think the Wildcats will need Martinez to make a plays via the air as well.
I would go strong on TCU for this game, but the potential for a letdown from last week’s emotional win, and KSU being rested, gives me pause. The Frogs need to pressure Martinez, who despite having no turnovers has put the ball on the ground three times so far this season. I think that will be difference.
My Pick: TCU -3.5, TCU -170